April 21, 2026 | 07:08 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Nature rarely unfolds without consequence, and at times its shifts arrive with far-reaching disruption. Just four months into 2026, early indicators point to what could become the strongest El Nino event in more than a century, raising concerns across global forecasting circles.
Driven by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, the developing system is expected to intensify conditions across vulnerable regions, with Australia among those most exposed.
As meteorologists escalate warnings over a potential “Super El Nino,” here’s everything we know about the weather event so far.
What is El Nino?
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate cycle which typically lasts between 9 and 12 months. The phenomenon is largely caused by warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean as it weakens trade winds and alters atmospheric circulation patterns.
In Australia, the impact is both immediate and far-reaching. According to Time Out, El Nino conditions often bring rising temperatures, more frequent heatwaves, and a heightened risk of drought and bushfires.
El Nino events recur every two to seven years, with Australia's most recent episode unfolding during the 2023-24 summer. According to data from the Bureau of Meteorology, the latest moderate to strong phase began in spring 2023 and extended into early 2024. During this time, the country experienced its driest three-month period from August to October 2023.
For the most part, the 2018-19 cycle El Nino remains one of the most severe that contributed to the devastating Black Summer bushfires.
What is Super El Nino?
A “Super” El Nino represents an intensified phase of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is defined by sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific rising at least two degrees above normal. The threshold marks a significant escalation in the system’s strength.
Such events are relatively rare. They tend to emerge roughly once every decade. When they do, the impact is global. Atmospheric patterns shift rapidly, setting off a chain reaction across continents.
What does El Nino look like this year in Australia?
While the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase, forecasters suggest this balance may not be held for long. Yahoo!News further stated that climate models point to a possible shift toward El Nino later this year, though both its timing and intensity remain uncertain.
The most immediate risk is a sharp decline in rainfall across eastern and northern Australia. This could trigger severe drought conditions and shorten the snow season in New South Wales ski regions.
Summer extremes are likely to intensify, with more frequent days above 40 degrees Celsius and longer heatwaves. Fire danger is expected to rise significantly. In northern regions such as Queensland’s Top End, delayed monsoons and fewer tropical cyclones could further disrupt seasonal patterns.
Read: Bare-bones Measures to Anticipate Forest Fires
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