TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Over 50 percent of Indonesia has entered the dry season. An analysis by the BMKG stated that the dry season has begun in 57.7 percent of the areas, including most of Sumatra, East Java, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara.
As for some other areas, based on BMKG's climatological analysis until the period of April-June 2025, they are still in the transition season. This transition period is marked by clear or hot weather in the morning until afternoon, and the potential for local rain in the evening.
The increase in solar radiation intensity from morning to afternoon strengthens convective processes in the lower layers of the atmosphere, thereby increasing the potential formation of convective clouds in the evening. BMKG explained that this condition has the potential to cause uneven, short-duration, moderate to heavy rain, accompanied by lightning and strong winds in several areas.
In the Weekly Weather Outlook for the current period, May 13-19, 2025, created by BMKG's Public Meteorology Directorate on Monday, May 12, 2025, it is also mentioned that the potential for rain in some areas of Indonesia is still supported by existing atmospheric dynamics and moderate to strong local instability. BMKG is monitoring, among other things, the presence of tropical cyclone 93P in the Arafura Sea region, west of South Papua.
Based on observations in the last three days, various parts of Indonesia are experiencing moderate to heavy rain. Some areas that recorded heavy rainfall include Yogyakarta with 115.3 mm/day, Banten with 103.0 mm/day, and Bali with 121.4 mm/day.
Prediction of Heavy Rain Over the Next Week
According to BMKG, the following prediction is made for heavy rain and strong winds over the next week, which can be anticipated.
Period May 13-15, 2025
Heavy Rain: West Java, East Nusa Tenggara, East Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, and Maluku.
Strong Winds: Aceh, East Nusa Tenggara, and South Papua.
Period May 16-19, 2025
Heavy Rain: Central Kalimantan and East Kalimantan.
Strong Winds: South Papua and Maluku.
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