TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Indonesia's weather agency has forecast that the El Nino climate pattern will persist until at least early 2027, with its intensity expected to peak at the strong category, raising the risk of prolonged drought and widespread forest fires.
Speaking at a press conference in Jakarta on Thursday, BMKG chief Teuku Faisal Fathani said the El Niño event is also likely to coincide with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) between September and December 2026, a combination that typically suppresses rainfall across much of Indonesia.
"The climate outlook is consistent with BMKG's forecast that El Niño will continue into early 2027 and trigger drier-than-normal dry season conditions," Faisal said.
According to BMKG, as of mid-July, 509 Seasonal Zones (Zona Musim/ZOM), or around 54.5 percent of Indonesia's land area, had entered the dry season, covering large parts of Java, Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Papua.
The agency's Directorate of Climatology projects that the peak of the 2026 dry season will occur mainly in August and September, with 437 seasonal zones expected to experience a longer-than-usual dry season.
Faisal warned that the extended drought would significantly increase the risk of forest and land fires, adding that BMKG had detected 4,900 hotspots across the country by the end of July.
"The threat of extreme drought has direct implications for the heightened risk of forest and land fires," he said.
To reduce the impact, BMKG has expanded weather modification operations, in addition to providing climate analysis and early warnings. The operations are being carried out in disaster-prone areas, including South Sumatra, Central Kalimantan, and Riau, with supporting command posts coordinated from West Java.
Faisal said BMKG is working closely with the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB), the Indonesian Military (TNI), the National Police, the Ministry of Forestry, and the Ministry of Environment to strengthen weather modification efforts and ground firefighting operations, in line with President Prabowo Subianto's directive.
Indonesia has been preparing for a harsher dry season this year as the strengthening El Niño and positive IOD are expected to reduce rainfall, heightening concerns over drought, water shortages, and recurring forest and peatland fires that often affect parts of Southeast Asia.
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