TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) projects that the dry season peak will occur from August to September this year in Indonesia. The Head of BMKG, Teuku Faisal Fathani, urges local governments and the public to be cautious about the potential expansion of forest and land fires and drought, which are expected to be more severe than usual dry seasons.
Faisal mentioned that, after the dry season peaks, some areas will experience high rainfall from October to November. "Higher rainfall is expected in several regions," said Faisal in a virtual Dry Season Press Conference on Thursday, July 30, 2026.
As of mid-July, 509 climate zones (ZOM), covering approximately 54.5 percent of Indonesia's land area, had entered the dry season. Meanwhile, 77 ZOMs (11.8 percent) are still experiencing the rainy season. Additionally, 113 ZOMs (33.7 percent) are classified as single-season zones.
Drier Dry Season
Faisal revealed that most of Indonesia is expected to have a drier-than-normal dry season. BMKG identified 437 ZOM (48.77 percent) of the land area as potentially facing a longer-than-normal dry season.
As of July 28, 2026, Faisal stated that the BMKG's monitoring showed 4,900 hotspots. The highest concentration of hotspots was detected in West Kalimantan, Riau, South Papua, Aceh, and East Kalimantan. "This finding is an early indication of the increasing risk of karhutla as the peak of the dry season approaches," he said.
As a mitigation measure, BMKG is conducting the Weather Modification Operation (WMO) to address wildfire and drought in several vulnerable areas. This operation is being carried out with financial support from the Ministry of Forestry and the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB).
"The Weather Modification Operation is currently underway in South Sumatra and Central Kalimantan. In addition, we are setting up additional WMO posts to strengthen the mitigation of hydrometeorological disasters," said Faisal.
El Nino Factor
Quoted from separate statements, BMKG also revealed that the global climate developments still support the continuation of dry weather in Indonesia. The Nino 3.4 index has reached +2.26, indicating a strong El Nino that is expected to strengthen.
"This phenomenon potentially reduces the formation of rain clouds and suppresses rainfall in various regions," read a statement from BMKG's Public Meteorological Directorate on the same day.
In the first half of August 2026, it is estimated that low rainfall will dominate approximately 91.43 percent of Indonesia's territory. Meanwhile, 8.57 percent of the country is expected to experience moderate rainfall, with no areas predicted to have high or very high rainfall.
"The dry conditions are beginning to have a real impact, resulting in reduced water availability, an increase in the number of hotspots, and a higher risk of fires in drying land and vegetation."
Read: Indonesia Forecasts El Nino to Last Through First Quarter of 2027
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