March 16, 2026 | 12:19 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The rupiah exchange rate at the opening of trading in Jakarta, Monday, March 16, 2026, weakened by 12 points or 0.07 percent to Rp16,970 per U.S. dollar. In the previous closing, the exchange rate of the rupiah against the U.S. dollar was recorded at Rp16,958.
Permata Bank Chief Economist Josua Pardede assessed that the uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East, as well as the prospect of an Iran-Israel war, also influenced risk sentiment in the market. "The ongoing uncertainty regarding the conflict in the Middle East (West Asia) is also pressing risk sentiment in the market, which affects the movement of the rupiah," he said, as quoted from Antara.
The escalation of geopolitical tension in the region is considered to have increased after the United States Government stated that the scale of the attack on Iran had been raised to a level exceeding previous expectations. The Pentagon was reported to have deployed Marine Expeditionary Units to the region.
As tensions escalated, oil prices also increased, strengthening the U.S. dollar. On Friday, March 13, the price of Brent oil rose by 2.67 percent to $103.14 per barrel.
However, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar was momentarily halted after the release of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter of 2025. "The figure was surprisingly revised down to 0.7 percent qoq (quarter on quarter) from the previous estimate of 1.4 percent qoq, which reflects the beginning of the weakening of the U.S. economy," he added.
Meanwhile, the Fed's chosen inflation indicator, the PCE Price Index, slightly decreased to 2.8 percent (year on year) in January 2026 from 2.9 percent (year on year/yoy) in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Core PCE Price Index marginally increased to 3.1 percent (yoy) from 3.0 percent.
"In today's trading, the rupiah is estimated to move in the range of Rp16,900 to Rp17,050 per U.S. dollar, in line with the lack of indications of easing geopolitical tensions and the 'wait-and-see' attitude of investors ahead of the long holiday period in Indonesia starting this Wednesday," stated Josua.
Read: Trump Urges Countries to Send Warships to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
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