TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Samsung's grip on the smartphone crown lasted so long that it seemed unbreakable. The South Korean tech giant achieved 14 unbroken years as the world's top shipper by volume.
That pattern, however, was finally broken as Apple reclaimed the numberone spot last year. According to full-year data from the Hong Kong-based Counterpoint Research, Apple achieved a 20% share of global shipments, versus Samsung’s 19%.
Yes, it's razor-close, but some analysts believe this could mark the beginning of a sustained recovery for the iPhone maker, whose competitive edge had been eroded by Chinese rivals and consumers keeping older phones for longer.
Apple targets mid-range phone buyers
While Samsung is steering further into the premium end of the smartphone market, Apple is moving in the opposite direction, pushing into the mid-range for the first time in years with lower-priced models aimed at winning over price-sensitive Android users.
With the North American and European markets now saturated, Yang Wang, a senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, sees the gap between Apple and Samsung widening further as the iPhone maker expands its range of mid-tier phones to meet rising demand in emerging markets like India, the Middle East and Southeast Asia.
"[Apple] already dominates the premium end of the market. If they want to increase shipments, they have to go lower," Wang told DW. "If you want to go after these markets, you can't expect everyone to afford a $1,200 [€1,025] iPhone 17 Pro."
New iPhone 17 debuts at pivotal moment
With 10% year-on-year growth, compared to Samsung's 5%, Apple's fourth quarter was its highest ever. The new iPhone 17 series drove much of that momentum, impressing buyers with a notable performance leap and a bold redesign, including a headline-grabbing Cosmic Orange finish on Pro models.
That quarter saw Apple account for around 25% of all global smartphone shipments, according to Counterpoint, marking its strongest performance ever in a single three-month span.
As well as the pivot to emerging markets, Apple surprisingly benefited from fears over US President Donald Trump's tariff threat on China and other nations in the iPhone supply chain. At one point, the proposed new levies threatened 30% to 40% price increases and caused a rush of early buying. A parallel surge in long-overdue phone replacements added further momentum.
Millions upgrade aging phones
During the pandemic, global smartphone shipments surged as lockdowns drove remote work and the need for better connectivity. This created a temporary spike in demand, with millions of users buying new phones ahead of their normal schedule.
But the surge led to a subsequent lull, with replacement cycles stretching to 3 or 4 years or more. By last year, that pent-up demand hit an inflection point, with COVID-era buyers finally needing to replace their old models just as the iPhone 17 went on sale in September and earlier models got cheaper.
"We’ve been seeing record levels of holdout periods across the world, but the tide is changing now — iPhone users are starting to think it is the right time to upgrade," Wang said.
US sanctions give Apple a China boost
Apple also continued to benefit in China from US sanctions on Huawei, which cut the domestic rival off from advanced chip supplies, forcing a collapse in sales of its premiumtier phones. As China’s smartphone market contracted sharply between 2021 and 2023, Apple became the country’s top premium brand, helped by former Huawei users upgrading to iPhones.
"Apple has been relatively resilient despite how the total [Chinese] market has been doing," Bryan Ma, vice president of devices research at IDC, a leading tech market insights firm, told DW. "They got some windfall from the fact that Huawei was absent in China and were able to pick up some of that premium position."
IDC's own data reflects an ongoing tussle between Apple and Samsung for the top spot, with the US tech giant taking the lead in 2023.
Could a foldable iPhone be next?
Despite Huawei’s sharp rebound in China last year—enough to reclaim the top spot there—Apple is also rumored to be preparing its own foldable phones, moving into an area where Huawei is already active and which, Ma noted, has captivated Chinese consumers.
"If Apple really does roll out a foldable and makes it available in China, that becomes a very powerful combination that can help put them in a good position [for more growth]," he added.
Apple must still navigate the most competitive smartphone market in the world. Alongside Huawei, Chinese rivals release new models far more frequently than Samsung and Apple. Brands like Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo are known for budget-friendly phones and features like super-fast charging and high-resolution cameras.
"The Chinese market is extremely competitive and consumers are very picky," Wang said. "If companies don't innovate, they disappear."
Counterpoint Research argues that 2026 is unlikely to be a strong year for the smartphone market overall, with lower shipments due to rising memory costs and pressure on mid-tier manufacturers.
Apple bets big on AI
But IDC's Ma argues that the iPhone maker could still strengthen its position if its long-promised artificial intelligence (AI) upgrade lands well. Apple Intelligence, launched two years ago, is the firm's on-device AI system that makes Siri smarter, offers more personalized suggestions and handles many tasks directly on the phone instead of sending them to the cloud.
"Tim Cook has publicly said, 'We're going to be rolling out the new, improved Siri early '26.' A lot is resting on how well they deliver on that," Ma said.
Read: Apple Projected to Dethrone Samsung as Global Smartphone Leader
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