TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Researcher at the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center of the Indonesian National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Erma Yulihastin, presented this data on Saturday, July 25, 2026. She quoted, among others, from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). "It is clear and proven that El Nino 2026 is stronger than 2023," she said.
She also mentioned that the strength of El Nino this year continues to grow, causing prolonged rainless periods in most parts of Indonesia. Erma, who is also a Research Professor in climatology, speculated that the sea surface temperature anomaly is likely to surpass the super El Nino events of 1997 and 2015, which recorded temperature increases of 2.2 and 2.6 degrees, respectively.
A driver crossing the Alfian Bridge to cross the dried-up Citarum River in Batujajar, West Bandung Regency, West Java, Friday, October 20, 2023. The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) stated that the natural phenomenon of El Nino this year has caused a drier and longer dry season, which has affected agricultural production and dried up water sources. ANTARA FOTO/Raisan Al Farisi
"Based on Australia's BOM model, this year could warm up to +3.3," she referred to the Bureau of Meteorology Climatology Australia. "And it is proven that the BOM model accurately predicted the strong El Nino for July," she added.
The anomaly of warming of the subsurface sea temperatures in the same area is even higher. Erma mentioned a +9 degree Celsius figure after revealing a +7 degree figure last week.
"Where is the excess heat transferred if not to all parts of the sea, especially to the surface? And if there is a condition of excessive heat on the sea surface, where is the excess heat transferred if not to the atmosphere? This is why the super El Nino is certain to occur and the sea surface temperature will continue to rise progressively," she explained.
Some experts attribute this extreme subsurface anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean to creating a reservoir of energy for potential storms to grow. Similarly, the possibility of a new global temperature record.
Erma revealed last Friday that five storms had been detected by the Himawari Satellite forming in the Pacific Ocean. "Two have developed into tropical cyclones: Fautso in the sea near Mexico and Bertha near Houston. Another tropical storm, which is also intensifying, is forming in the Philippine Sea," she said.
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