TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Director of the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance Green Transition Initiative (INDEF GTI), Imaduddin Abdullah, estimated that global revenues from critical minerals will skyrocket by up to 539 percent by 2050. Conversely, revenues from the coal sector are projected to plunge by around 59 percent over the same period.
According to Imaduddin, the upcoming surge in demand for critical minerals through 2040 will no longer be fueled primarily by electric vehicles. The momentum is also being heavily driven by the need for energy storage infrastructure, specifically Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS).
"We see this as one of the great potentials, particularly within the framework of government programs targeting the development of 100 gigawatts of solar power plants (PLTS). This 100-GW agenda will inevitably amplify the need for solar panels, batteries, cables, aluminum, glass, copper, and various other electrical components," Imaduddin said during an INDEF discussion in Jakarta on Wednesday, June 17, 2026.
He explained that building up energy storage systems to support renewable energy generation will be a major factor driving the appetite for critical minerals like nickel, cobalt, and manganese. The energy storage sector’s contribution to the overall demand for these specific minerals is projected to hit around 74 percent.
Currently, Imaduddin noted, Indonesia has critical mineral reserves of nickel reaching 62 million tons, representing nearly half of the global supply. Yet, despite sitting on these massive reserves, Imaduddin believes the country still grapples with several bottlenecks to maximize the economic benefits of the sector.
One of the main issues is the absence of a comprehensive domestic supply chain for supporting components. For instance, Indonesia remains heavily dependent on imports for solar wafers, a crucial element in the solar panel industry that carries potential for high added value.
In fact, he continued, processing solar wafers can generate added value up to 68 times the raw material's original worth. "However, up until now, this manufacturing industry has not been available in Indonesia, and we continue to rely on imports," he lamented.
Meanwhile, the Director of Mineral Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources' (ESDM) Directorate General of Minerals and Coal, Cecep Mohammad Yasin, stated that the pressure of climate change and shifting global geopolitical dynamics are accelerating the urgency for a clean energy transition.
According to him, these shifts will inevitably redirect global energy requirements away from coal-dependent fossil fuels toward new and renewable alternatives that demand a massive influx of critical minerals.
"The demand for critical minerals, such as lithium, cobalt, graphite, copper, and rare earth elements, is projected to climb steadily until 2040 to support the expansion of electric vehicles, batteries, renewable energy, and modernized power grids," Cecep observed.
He added that critical minerals will emerge as a defining benchmark for global economic competitiveness in the future. He believes that nations capable of dominating the supply chain and processing industries for these minerals will hold a strategic vantage point in the emerging green energy economy.
On the other hand, Cecep noted that coal is still expected to play an important role for the coming decades. Structurally, however, the commodity is entering a phase of stagnant growth and faces a gradual, long-term decline as new and renewable energy alternatives gain traction.
"Globally, coal still has a very large volume. However, structurally speaking, it has entered a plateau phase and is beginning a slow decline as the development of new and renewable energy develops," he concluded.
Read: Indonesia Hikes Coal Production Quota over 600 Million Tons
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