TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Iran appears to have lost significant control over the Strait of Hormuz as more ships use an alternative route along Oman's coast despite Tehran's threats, while the United States continues to expand its naval presence in the strategically vital waterway.
The Strait of Hormuz has become a central flashpoint in the ongoing Iran war, with both Tehran and Washington claiming control over the waterway. However, recent shipping data suggests that Iran's ability to restrict maritime traffic has weakened.
As reported by CNN, more than 80 percent of vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz over the past two weeks have used the Omani route, a United Nations-authorized shipping channel that Iran opposes.
The route runs along the northern coast of Oman and has increasingly been used by vessels seeking to avoid Iran's preferred shipping route and the threat of attacks.
Iran has attacked dozens of ships that attempted to use the Omani route. Despite the risks, most vessels have continued using the route, relying on assurances of protection from US naval forces.
“It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait,” Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler.
Shipping Traffic Shifts Away From Iran's Preferred Route
The shift marks a significant change from a month earlier, when Kpler recorded virtually no shipping traffic using the Omani route.
The reduction in traffic through Iran's preferred route has also limited Tehran's ability to collect tolls from vessels passing through the waterway, as it had done earlier in the conflict.
The expiration of the Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran this week theoretically allows Iran to resume collecting tolls. However, Kpler's data suggests that the country has not been able to do so effectively.
“The Oman route absolutely makes the most sense,” Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer of Pickering Energy Partners.
Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have also chartered very large crude carriers to transport oil through the Strait of Hormuz before transferring their cargoes to other tankers outside the danger zone in the Gulf of Oman.
Some of these vessels have switched off their transponders for weeks at a time to avoid detection by Iran. This so-called dark traffic can be difficult for traditional tracking services to monitor, although some vessels can still be detected using satellite data.
The United States, meanwhile, has maintained a significant naval presence in the area and says it has visibility over vessels traveling through the strait.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said last week that combined oil shipments through the strait and shipments rerouted around the waterway totaled about 15 million barrels per day over a one-week period. That figure is closer to the pre-war average of about 20 million barrels per day.
Trump Claims US Has 'Total Control' of Strait
The developments have fueled competing claims over who controls the Strait of Hormuz.
President Donald Trump said Monday that the United States has “total control over the strait,” a claim he has repeatedly made during the conflict.
However, Iran continues to attack vessels and that oil flows remain significantly below pre-war levels, suggesting that Washington does not have complete control of the waterway.
At the same time, Iran appears increasingly unable to enforce its demands over maritime traffic.
“If their goal is to be ‘in charge,’ then I’d say they were never completely in control to start with,” Pickering said. He described Iran's strategy as one of deterrence rather than complete control.
“But it is fair to say that Iran has partially lost control of the strait,” Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, told CNN.
The situation is further complicated by separate talks between Oman and Iran aimed at restoring freedom of navigation through the waterway.
Those negotiations are taking place without direct US involvement, a development that has drawn Trump's criticism.
Trump Labels Strait 'New' US Territory
Amid the dispute over control of the waterway, Trump has also escalated his rhetoric over the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Forbes, Trump posted a map on social media Tuesday labeling the Strait of Hormuz as “new” US territory. The post did not include an explanation.
The move came after Trump said the previous week that he would “pretty soon” declare the Strait of Hormuz a US territory.
The Strait has remained the primary flashpoint in the conflict since Trump announced “major combat operations” against Iran on February 28, with joint US-Israeli strikes targeting Iranian military, government and infrastructure sites.
Although US and Iranian delegations entered negotiations in June aimed at reaching a deal to end the war, the two countries have continued exchanging strikes.
The strategic importance of the waterway has made control over its shipping routes a central issue in the conflict. Roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
For now, shipping data points to a shift in the balance rather than outright control by either side. Iran retains the ability to threaten vessels and disrupt traffic, while the United States has increasingly enabled ships to use alternative routes through the waterway.
As negotiations between Oman and Iran continue, the future of maritime traffic — and the question of who can effectively control the Strait of Hormuz — remains uncertain.
Read: Iran to Keep Strait of Hormuz Closed Until US Meets Peace Commitments
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