April 24, 2026 | 01:46 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - El Nino is not expected to come barging in for at least another week, according to the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG).
According to the weather agency, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), remain in neutral phase for the next week.
This information was conveyed by the Public Meteorology Directorate of BMKG while reporting on the weather outlook for April 24-30 on Thursday. The neutral phase, it said, renders El Nino incapable of exerting a dominant influence.
This is in contrast with the Australian monsoon wind, which is expected to strengthen over the next week. This wind plays a role in bringing dry air masses from the Australian region to Indonesia. "In addition, the dominance of eastward winds in most regions is a signal that several areas are gradually transitioning from the rainy season to the dry season."
Despite the weather staying sunny in general, BMKG warns of likely rain in some parts of Indonesia, influenced by other atmospheric dynamics.
For example, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in Aceh, North Sumatra, and South Papua; and the active Kelvin waves in parts of Sumatra, Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan, central and southern parts of Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua.
Meanwhile, Equatorial Rossby Waves are predicted to be active in the regions of Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, southern parts of Sulawesi, Maluku, and central and southern parts of Papua.
"These various atmospheric dynamics can support the growth of rain clouds in those regions," as quoted from BMKG's statement.
Other factors include cyclonic circulation, such as the potential formation in the western waters of Aceh, and strong local instability factor, which supports convective processes. Among the regions influenced by this local factor are Banten and West Java.
Overall, BMKG is urging North Sumatra, South Sumatra, Bengkulu, West Java, Maluku, and Papua to be vigilant for the potential of heavy to very heavy rain over the weekend.
The weather agency also warned of strong winds in East Kalimantan, East Nusa Tenggara, Maluku, and South Papua.
On April 27-30, West Sumatra, Central Sulawesi, and the Papua Highlands are expecting extreme rain while strong winds are likely to occur in East Nusa Tenggara, Maluku, Central Papua, and South Papua.
Read: Australia on Alert as Super El Nino Threat Looms in 2026
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