TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The rising sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean have exceeded 1.56 degrees Celsius above normal temperatures, meaning El Nino is intensifying.
The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) revealed this development in the 'Analysis of Atmospheric Dynamics in the Second Ten Days of July' published on July 23, 2026. "BMKG predicts that El Nino 2026 will reach a very strong level," the additional statement said.
Subsequently, BMKG warns several regions with varying alert levels for meteorological drought throughout the third ten days of this month (July 20-30), with some parts of Yogyakarta, Central Java, and East Java designated with the highest warning.
BMKG analysis also mentioned that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index value in June was still in a neutral phase, but it is predicted to shift towards a positive phase from September to December.
As is known, IOD+ is similar to El Nino in the Pacific Ocean, which causes rainless dry weather in Indonesia.
Researcher at the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center of the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) Erma Yulihastin also mentioned last week that El Nino has entered a phase of strong intensity (+1.5 degrees Celsius). She stated that the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Nino3.4 region in the Pacific Ocean has risen by 0.2 degrees every week since February.
According to Erma, the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Pacific Ocean has now even reached +1.74 degrees. This anomaly figure has exceeded the strong El Nino phenomenon in 2023. "El Nino and its subsequent impact will certainly be much stronger than 2023," she said.
She explained that there is an 81 percent chance that a super El Nino or a very strong El Nino (+2.0 degrees Celsius) will be reached in October-November-December. Meaning, it is possible for El Nino to persist until next year.
Another point she noted is the anomalous heating of subsurface sea water. Last week, Erma mentioned that the increase in subsurface temperature was 5 degrees. But now it's +7 degrees. "The heat in the subsurface will be distributed to the surface and ultimately released into the atmosphere," said Erma.
According to Erma, the impact can be seen as the Pacific Ocean grows as a low-pressure center capable of generating consecutive storms. It can be said that the rain in Indonesia, South Africa, and Brazil have been sucked into this specific location.
In Indonesia, Erma added, Kalimantan is the most responsive island to El Nino-induced drought. "Don't let wildfires break out, especially during its peak," she warned.
Read: El Nino Threat: What Will Jakarta Do During the Drought?
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