April 10, 2026 | 01:36 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The rupiah exchange rate on Friday, April 10, 2026, strengthened slightly by 7 points to 17,083 per U.S. dollar from its previous close of 17,090. However, by 11:00 a.m., Bloomberg data showed the currency had breached the 17,101 level, while Trading Economics indicated it reached 17,102 per U.S. dollar.
Wijayanto Samirin, an economist and lecturer at Paramadina University, stated that the weakening rupiah poses significant risks to the government's foreign currency debt burden, particularly for dollar-denominated obligations. "This will increase the costs of both interest and principal debt payments when converted into rupiah," he told Tempo on Friday, April 10, 2026.
He estimated that foreign currency debt currently accounts for approximately 25 percent of the government's total debt, a condition that risks inflating the debt service ratio. "My estimate is that the debt service ratio will climb from 49 percent to 51 percent if the U.S. dollar remains at the Rp17,000 level," he noted.
According to Indonesia's External Debt Statistics released by the Ministry of Finance, the government’s foreign debt as of January 2026 stood at US$216.3 billion. Of that total, dollar-denominated debt accounts for US$107.46 billion, equivalent to roughly Rp1,826.82 trillion based on a Rp17,000 exchange rate. Meanwhile, the government's total debt position has reached Rp9,637.90 trillion.
Yusuf Rendy Manilet, a researcher at the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia, explained that the impact of a weakening rupiah on the state budget is complex and functions through several channels. The most immediate impact is visible in energy subsidies, as oil prices are settled in dollars and Indonesia remains a net oil importer.
Every dip in the exchange rate directly inflates energy procurement costs, leading to a heavier subsidy burden. "In addition, there is pressure from the obligation to service foreign currency debts, as well as government spending that still relies heavily on imports," Yusuf said.
The rupiah’s exchange rate in the 2026 State Budget macro assumptions is pegged at Rp16,500 per U.S. dollar. Based on the sensitivity model in the 2026 State Budget Financial Note, every Rp100 depreciation against the dollar increases revenue by Rp5.3 trillion but swells state spending by Rp6.1 trillion. This means that for every Rp100 drop from the Rp16,500 assumption, the state budget faces a deficit of approximately Rp800 billion.
Read: Indonesia's Economy Remains Strong in Early 2026, Minister Says
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