February 2, 2026 | 06:16 am
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – South Korea is expected to overtake Japan as the most popular overseas destination for Chinese tourists this Lunar New Year, a sharp shift in regional tourism patterns.
An estimated 230,000 to 250,000 visitors from mainland China will arrive in South Korea during the nine-day holiday beginning on February 15, according to travel analytics firm China Trading Desk. That would represent a 52% increase from last year's Lunar New Year period, which was one day shorter, Bloomberg reported.
Japan, long a favorite among Chinese tourists due to its weak yen, is experiencing the opposite trend. Arrivals from mainland China during the holiday are expected to plummet by 60% compared to 2025, China Trading Desk said, eroding one of Japan's most profitable tourism segments.
This shift reflects escalating diplomatic friction between Beijing and Tokyo, South Korea's aggressive easing of visa rules for Chinese tour groups, and growing security concerns in other regional travel hubs. The favorable exchange rate between the Chinese renminbi and the South Korean won has further boosted South Korea's appeal, along with the global popularity of Korean pop culture.
Seoul, Busan, and Jeju Island have emerged as top destinations. Analysts say South Korea has become a natural alternative as Chinese tourists reconsider Japan and, increasingly, Thailand.
"The weak won makes Seoul, Busan, and Jeju feel like value-added options for shopping and dining," said Subramania Bhatt, chief executive of China Trading Desk, as reported by The Straits Times. The combination of K-pop culture and the rerouting of cruises and tours from Japan to South Korea for the Spring Festival has created a clear substitution effect, he added.
At the same time, many Chinese tourists canceled trips to Thailand following the kidnapping of a Chinese actor who was later rescued from a fraud center in neighboring Myanmar, as well as growing concerns about regional instability.
South Korea moved quickly to fill the void, extending its visa-free policy for Chinese tour groups until June. This surge marks a dramatic change from 2017, when a diplomatic dispute over the deployment of a US missile defense system triggered a sharp decline in Chinese visitors.
Signs of improving relations have also emerged. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung visited Beijing earlier this month for his second meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in approximately two months, the first visit by a South Korean leader to China since 2019.
Airlines are racing to adjust capacity. Flights between mainland China and South Korea have surged nearly 25% from a year earlier to more than 1,330 for the holiday period, according to Cirium aviation data. Conversely, scheduled flights from China to Japan have fallen 48% to just over 800, prompting major Chinese airlines to extend cancellation fee waivers for flights to Japan through March.
This influx of tourists has already begun to impact the South Korean economy. Tourist spending from mainland China is expected to exceed $330 million during the holiday week alone, surpassing the estimated $250 million to $300 million for Japan, according to China Trading Desk estimates. More than seven million mainland Chinese tourists are projected to visit South Korea in 2026, a 15% increase from 2025, according to Yanolja Research.
Businesses catering to medical and beauty tourism have also seen the surge. Tony Medina, who runs a consulting firm in Seoul that connects foreign tourists with skincare and cosmetic surgery clinics, said he has received several hundred inquiries from mainland Chinese clients in recent weeks, compared with just a few last year.
"Twenty years in Korea, and I've never seen a surge like this," Medina said, noting that his company doesn't market its services in China or in Mandarin, as quoted by The Straits Times.
Not all South Koreans have welcomed the influx of tourists. Local media and social media platforms have linked the rise in crime to the surge in mainland Chinese tourists, although the government has dismissed the claims as baseless. A petition calling on Parliament to abolish the visa-free policy has garnered about 60,000 signatures.
In Japan, the outlook remains weak. Visitor traffic from China, its largest source of tourism spending, is expected to remain sluggish through the first quarter, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Leading travel agency JTB predicts Japan will see its first decline in foreign tourist arrivals since the pandemic in 2026, with numbers dropping 2.8% to 41.4 million.
Read: Top 8 Spots to Buy Unique CNY Goodies in Singapore 2026
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