TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Researcher at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Erma Yulihastin, revealed the latest observations showing the formation of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean since April 23, 2026. This has led to an increase in sea surface temperatures in the region, reaching record highs and anomalies of over 5 degrees Celsius in the eastern and central equatorial surface layers.
Simultaneously, Erma noted on a post on X Saturday declining cloud activity in the southeast part of Indonesia, marked by "red-colored positive anomalies or minimal clouds in the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)."
Erma cautioned that this series of phenomena signals the consistent formation of a dry season, particularly in the southeast part of Indonesia. Furthermore, her prediction indicates that a Super El Nino will begin to form in July and strengthen by the end of this year.
Despite this, Erma mentioned that similar conditions may not necessarily occur in parts of the country, such as Java. Sporadic bursts of rain still occur on the island, but this does not signal disruption in El Nino formation.
The rain is caused by weather instability triggered by the dynamics of the southern Java Sea in the Indian Ocean.
Erma advises the government and residents of Java to take advantage of remaining rainfall to store water in anticipation of the drier months ahead.
The National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) also warns of wildfire potential during this year's dry season. Agency head Suharyanto noted Sumatra and Kalimantan as regions with a high vulnerability to forest fires.
"We must not be complacent; all stakeholders must act together early on," said Suharyanto in a statement on Thursday, April 16, 2026, referring to wildfire risks.
Suharyanto emphasized that preventive measures are the key to preventing fires from spreading and affecting surrounding communities. He mentioned that BNPB has deployed various support, including aerial operations through patrols and water bombing, as well as weather modification operations.
During a press conference on the Early Forecast for the 2026 Dry Season on Wednesday, March 4, the head of the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), Teuku Faisal Fathani, also stated that this year's dry season will be drier and longer than usual. He stressed the need for mitigation to deal with this situation.
"These efforts must be accompanied by strengthening the water resources sector through dam revitalization and improving distribution networks to ensure the availability of clean water for domestic needs and the operation of hydroelectric power plants in the energy sector," said Faisal.
"BMKG asserts that this forecast is an early warning that must be translated into tangible action by stakeholders to minimize the risk of drought disasters in Indonesia," said Faisal.
Read: Half-Hearted Response to Climate Crisis
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