TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño could redevelop in the coming months, raising the risk of drier weather in Indonesia and intensifying extreme weather patterns in other parts of the world.
The UN weather agency said the probability of El Niño emerging between June and August stands at 80 percent, with the likelihood of it persisting at least until November reaching or exceeding 90 percent.
According to the WMO, the potential return of El Niño is driven by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon is known to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns and increase the risk of extreme weather events.
Indonesia is among the regions expected to face drier-than-normal conditions if El Niño develops. Similar impacts are also forecast for Australia, Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, and parts of South Asia.
The WMO also projected above-average temperatures between June and August across most of the world, raising the risk of heat stress and accelerating drought conditions in areas with reduced rainfall.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the science was clear that El Niño was likely to arrive in the coming months with a 90 percent probability, adding that the world must treat it as an urgent climate warning.
“Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed. The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all,” Guterres said in a video statement on Tuesday, as quoted by WMO Media Center.
He added that El Niño would worsen the impacts of a warming planet, with effects that are more severe, widespread, and fast-moving across borders.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said countries must prepare for a potentially strong El Niño.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event - which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean," she said.
She noted that the 2023–2024 El Niño event was among the five strongest on record and contributed to the record global temperatures seen in 2024.
Saulo also stressed the importance of seasonal forecasts and early warning systems in saving lives and reducing economic and social impacts.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate pattern marked by above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to 12 months.
While El Niño often brings drier conditions to some regions, the WMO warned it can also increase flooding risks in areas with above-normal rainfall. The agency stressed that preparedness and early warning systems are essential to protect communities and reduce economic losses.
Besides El Nino, What Else Is Warming the Ocean?
3 jam lalu
Apart from the super El Nino, BRIN has also detected several other anomalies linked to the increase in ocean temperature.
Indonesia Pushes Rice Planting Ahead of El Nino Peak
13 jam lalu
Indonesia is accelerating a rice planting campaign across 750 hectares in Lamongan, East Java, to anticipate the impact of El Nino.
Dry Season and El Nino Await, Why the Frequent Downpours?
7 hari lalu
Rain is predicted to decrease in the coming days. Get ready for a drier dry season as a result from El Nino. Read the explanation below.
Indonesia Optimistic Rice Supply Will Stay Stable During El Nino
7 hari lalu
Indonesia is optimistic that national rice production and availability will remain stable in the face of the potential El Nino.
What Anies Baswedan Says on Rupiah Plunge and Its Impact
12 hari lalu
Speaking at UGM, Anies Baswedan warned that the rupiah's historic drop to 18,000 per US dollar directly burdens the public.
Scientists Warn Super El Nino May Bring Extreme Weather in the US
13 hari lalu
The rare Super El Nino is forecasted to develop in the Pacific Ocean later this year. Here's what the Americans are warned.
BMKG Warns of El Nino Impact as Heavy Rain Persists
14 hari lalu
For the week ahead, May 19 to 25, the BMKG has revealed that Indonesia is already in the El Nino condition category.
El Nino Could Trigger Extreme Fires Worldwide in 2026
20 hari lalu
More than 150 million ha burned globally in the first half of 2026. With a high chance of a supercharged El Nino, the second half could be even worse.
Indonesia Boosts Vigilance Over El Nino, Prolonged Dry Season
20 hari lalu
According to the minister, weather data analysis indicates that a low- to moderate-intensity El Nino phenomenon is expected to emerge in June 2026.
Historic Super El Nino Could Trigger Global Weather Chaos
20 hari lalu
A developing El Nino pattern in Pacific Ocean is expected to become one of the world's biggest weather stories heading into the second half of 2026.
