TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - For the first time, China has observed a decline in its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, even as the country's energy demand has increased. This reduction is seen as an early indicator that China's transition to clean energy is beginning to yield tangible results.
An analysis by Lauri Myllivirta, a researcher at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) in Finland, reveals that China's CO2 emissions have decreased by approximately 1 percent over the past 12 months. In the first quarter of 2025, a 1.6 percent decrease was recorded compared to the same period last year.
While this is not the first instance of China's emissions declining, this reduction differs significantly from the decline in 2022, which was primarily attributed to the economic slowdown during the COVID-19 lockdowns. This time, the decrease occurred amidst a rise in national electricity consumption.
"That, of course, means the current fall in emissions has a much better chance of being sustained," said Myllivirta, as reported by New Scientist on Wednesday, May 21, 2025.
This decline is largely driven by a massive expansion of solar, wind, and nuclear energy capacity in China, which is progressively replacing fossil fuel power plants. Additionally, a shift in the economy away from carbon-intensive sectors, such as steel and cement production, along with the surging adoption of electric vehicles, has also contributed to a reduced demand for fossil fuels.
If this trend continues, China has the potential to consistently reduce emissions and surpass its peak emissions earlier than its targeted 2030 deadline. This would represent a significant achievement in global efforts to combat the climate crisis.
"If and when China’s leaders conclude that they’ve actually got a grip on the problem, and they’ve started to bring down emissions, that will enable China to be a much more forceful and much more positive player in international climate policy, and encourage others to move in the same direction as well," he says.
However, according to David Fishman of Lantau Group, an energy consultant based in Hong Kong, several factors could trigger a resurgence in emissions. In the short term, hot summer weather can increase electricity consumption for air conditioning. Droughts can also diminish the output of hydroelectric power plants, compelling coal and gas power plants to compensate for the lost supply.
Furthermore, tariffs imposed by the Donald Trump administration are considered to introduce instability into Chinese emission projections.
In the long term, to meet its energy needs, China must continue to build new clean energy generation capacity on a scale of hundreds of gigawatts per year. The success of these efforts will heavily depend on the targets outlined in the next five-year plan, scheduled to be announced in 2026, as well as China's commitment to the Paris Agreement in anticipation of this year's COP30 Climate Conference.
"The fate of the global climate doesn’t ride upon what happens in China this summer, but it does, to a large part, ride on what happens to China’s emissions over the next years and over the next decade," said Myllivirta.
Editor's Choice: China to Deploy 2,800 AI-Driven Supercomputing Satellites in Orbit
Click here to get the latest news updates from Tempo on Google News
China to Deploy 2,800 AI-Driven Supercomputing Satellites in Orbit
7 jam lalu
China has launched the first 12 satellites for a space-based AI supercomputer network development project
Indonesia vs China Match Tickets in Jakarta Sold Out
8 jam lalu
Tickets for the Indonesia national team's match against China on June 5 for the 2026 World Cup qualifiers have already sold out
Over 3,000 Villages in Indonesia Still Without Electricity, Says Ministry
2 hari lalu
There are also some villages that receive electricity for only 4 to 12 hours a day, yet are still classified as electrified.
Patrick Kluivert's 5 Surprise Indonesian Picks for China, Japan Matches
2 hari lalu
Coach Patrick Kluivert has called up 32 players to represent the Indonesian national team for the matches against China and Japan
Ragnar Oratmangoen Absent for Indonesia's Matches Against China, Japan
2 hari lalu
Patrick Kluivert, the Indonesian national team coach, has called up 32 players to represent Indonesia in matches against China and Japan
Nvidia Plans to Expand Presence with R&D Center in Shanghai
2 hari lalu
American chip company, Nvidia, plans to build a research and development (R&D) center in Shanghai.
Solar Puts Us in Fast Lane to 100% Renewables
3 hari lalu
A massive increase in solar power generation capacity is already putting Australia on the fast track to a 100 percent renewable energy future.
Why US-China Trade Talks May Not Lead to a Comprehensive Deal
3 hari lalu
If US pressure China to free-float yuan, increase market access for its companies & go for full capital account convertibility, trade deal is unlikely
Bangkok-Kuala Lumpur Direct Train Set to Launch in Late 2025
4 hari lalu
Travelers looking to journey between Bangkok, Thailand, and Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, will soon have a more convenient option.
Cilegon Kadin Chair Named Suspect in Rp5tn Extortion of Foreign Investor
4 hari lalu
The Banten Police named the Kadin Cilegon chairperson and two others as suspects for allegedly extorting a foreign investor for Rp5 trillion.
