TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The latest escalation between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah group is exacerbating Lebanon's dire humanitarian situation.
"Lebanon is in a state of panic," Kelly Petillo, program manager for Middle East and North Africa at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told DW. "Thirty-one people were killed on the eve of this week's Eid holiday."
Lebanon was drawn into the wider Middle East war on March 2, 2026, when Hezbollah fired at Israel two days after the US and Israel attacked Iran. According to Lebanon's Health Ministry, more than 3,213 people have been killed and more than 1 million people remain displaced following nearly three months of Israeli strikes.
This week, hopes for an end to the fighting were further dimmed after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Hezbollah's increased use of explosive drones threatens the lives of civilians in Israel's north and "requires of us now to increase the blows, to increase the intensity. We will smite them hip and thigh."
Israel has been attacking Hezbollah infrastructure and building up a growing military presence further into southern Lebanon. Hezbollah, meanwhile, has been targeting Israel's north and Israeli military in Lebanon's south.
This current escalation is likely to play a role in the ongoing US-Iran negotiations. The US and Israel view the conflict in Lebanon as separate from peace negotiations with Tehran, while Iranian officials insist on including this front in a deal.
"Israel and Hezbollah have entered a very dangerous escalatory cycle," David Wood, a Beirut-based senior analyst for Lebanon at the International Crisis Group, told DW. "If the situation continues along this path, it could have disastrous consequences for Lebanon."
Beirut under domestic pressure as well
Hezbollah's military wing is classified as a terrorist organization by the US, Germany and many other countries. The Lebanese government under President Joseph Aoun already banned all military action by Hezbollah in March 2026 and continues to push for Hezbollah's disarmament. This was stipulated in the November 2024 ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which ended more than a year of skirmishes and two months of full-scale war with around 4,000 killed and major destruction in Lebanon. However, tensions and attacks between Israel and Hezbollah continued until the situation escalated again in early March.
"Hezbollah feels the net tightening around it on the domestic scene," Wood points out. "Hezbollah sees not only Israel waging a war on it, but also believes that the Lebanese government is waging a confrontation against both the group's military and social institutions."
Naim Qassem, the secretary-general of the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon, meanwhile warned Beirut that his group would confront any government attempt to shut down the Hezbollah-linked Al-Qard Al-Hassan financial institution.
"The people have the right to go down onto the streets and to bring down the government," he said.
In regard to the growing Israeli military presence in the country's south, Qassem added that "if this government is incapable of guaranteeing sovereignty, it should go."
Sami Halabi, director of policy at the Lebanese think tank The Alternative Policy Institute, says that Hezbollah might indeed believe that another government would serve its interests better.
"Hezbollah is now floating the idea of taking down the government through popular revolt," he told DW. In his view, this proposition is a dangerous one, even though "at the moment it is more tongue-in-cheek than anything else."
However, he added that this could develop into a more serious option if plans proceeded to disarm Hezbollah by force, rather than through a process.
"Disarmament by force would almost certainly lead to civil strife in Lebanon," he warned.
Lebanese diplomacy
Nominally, also the most recent US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon that took effect on April 17, 2026, remains in place and was extended by 45 days on May 15, 2026. However, despite being a signatory, the Lebanese government is not a party to the conflict while Hezbollah, on the other hand, did not sign the agreement. In turn, the ceasefire has been fragile with almost daily attacks by Israel and Hezbollah. The situation is also likely to continue until the third round of direct Lebanese-Israeli peace talks in Washington on June 2-3, 2026.
Lebanese President Aoun meanwhile defended holding the next round of direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, saying that a permanent peace and his demand for a complete Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon was non-negotiable.
"The liberation of the south is a duty borne by the state with the support of its people," Aoun said.
However, as David Wood notes, Hezbollah points to developments on the ground as justification for keeping its weapons, arguing that diplomacy is ineffective.
Hezbollah has long said that its weapons are necessary to deter Israeli attacks, while critics say the group undermines Lebanese state sovereignty by operating an independent armed force.
"While Hezbollah also needs to stand down under any ceasefire agreement, Israel, by intensifying its operations in Lebanon rather than observing the ceasefire, is undermining the Lebanese government's ability to deliver meaningful progress in the talks that are still ongoing in Washington," Wood said.
Rising hunger across Lebanon
Amid this escalating standoff between the Lebanese government, Hezbollah and Israel, conditions for Lebanon's civilians are becoming increasingly dire.
A recent analysis from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) warned that almost one in four people in Lebanon — around 1.24 million — are expected to face acute food insecurity between April and August 2026. The Lebanese Agriculture Ministry also warned that about 22% of agricultural land in affected areas has been damaged, further undermining food production and livelihoods.
Furthermore, the United Nations $308.3 million (€264m) Flash Appeal for March to May 2026 secured only 51.3% of the required funding by May 26, 2026, the UN said in a statement this week.
In turn, aid agencies warn that funding shortages are not only forcing humanitarian groups to scale back essential services for Lebanon's population, but also for hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees in the country.
"As all water service provision to Syrian refugees will stop as of June 1, 2026, the risk of waterborne disease outbreaks, such as hepatitis A, typhoid and cholera are enormous," Suzanne Takkenberg, regional director for Lebanon at Action Against Hunger, told DW.
Read: Sport Helping Displaced Lebanese Living in Stadium to Cope
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