August 15, 2026 | 10:52 am
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - President Prabowo Subianto stated that Indonesia's economic performance in 2026 is set to record its highest growth rate in the last 13 years. The metrics refer to economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 at 5.61 percent and the cumulative first-half growth reaching 5.45 percent.
"This economic growth is the highest in the last 13 years," President Prabowo said in his address at the Annual Session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) on Friday, August 14, 2026.
Is it true that Indonesia's economic growth in 2026 will be the highest in 13 years?
Verification by Tempo's Fact Check team reveals that the surge in economic growth does not necessarily reflect an increase in public welfare.
2026 Gross Domestic Product Growth Figures
The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported on May 5, 2026, that the Indonesian economy expanded 5.61 percent year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reached Rp6,187.2 trillion at current prices and Rp3,447.7 trillion at constant 2010 prices. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2026 indeed exceeds figures recorded since 2013.
A line chart showing Indonesia's year-on-year Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth percentage from 2013 through the first quarter of 2026. [Source: BPS]
Meanwhile, growth in the first half of 2026 stood at 5.45 percent, driven largely by the accommodation and food and beverage sector (11.83 percent) alongside government consumption expenditure (18.62 percent). Teuku Riefky, a macroeconomic researcher at the Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI), explained that economic growth in 2026 remains heavily supported by government spending.
If government spending is excluded, Riefky estimates that Indonesia's real economic growth would linger at roughly 4.52 percent. "This figure is actually far below the average over the past decade, which reached 5 percent," Riefky told Tempo on Friday, August 14, 2026.
GDP Growth Does Not Reflect Public Welfare
Pasundan University economist Acuviarta Kartabi stressed that GDP growth claims do not automatically reflect real economic conditions on the ground. He highlighted the persistent income distribution inequality (Gini ratio), which remains higher in urban areas than in rural regions.
Acuviarta also noted a wave of layoffs (PHK) reaching 43,000 cases as of June 2026, citing data from the Ministry of Manpower. This trend is further exacerbated by a shrinking middle class. INDEF data shows that the middle-class population declined by 9.48 million people, a 16.5 percent drop, over the past five years.
"Based on this data, there is no correlation between high economic growth and increased public welfare," Acuviarta told Tempo on Friday, August 14, 2026. He argued that current economic growth is primarily enjoyed by large enterprises. Public welfare, he added, should instead be measured through specific metrics like income inequality, as well as the depth and severity of regional poverty.
Acuviarta Kartabi, an economic observer from Pasundan University, reiterated that GDP growth claims fail to capture true public economic wellbeing. He instead pointed to the widening inequality gap in income and expenditure distribution, which continues to hit urban residents harder than those living in rural areas.
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