August 14, 2026 | 08:57 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - President Prabowo Subianto set an oil lifting target of 610,000 barrels per day (bopd) in the 2027 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget Draft (RAPBN). This target is the same as that set by the Indonesian government in the 2026 APBN.
Meanwhile, gas lifting is targeted to reach 954,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2027. This figure is lower than this year's target of 984,000 boepd.
"We are targeting oil lifting of 610,000 barrels per day and gas lifting of 954,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day," Prabowo said while delivering the government's introduction to the Financial Memorandum and the 2027 RAPBN on Friday, August 14, 2026.
The government also set an assumption for the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) of US$75 per barrel in 2027, up from the 2026 State Budget assumption of US$70 per barrel.
Reflecting on this target, Gadjah Mada University energy observer Fahmy Radhi believes Indonesia will remain dependent on oil imports. He believes the current state of oil and gas reserves and upstream industry structure no longer supports fossil-based energy independence.
According to data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), Indonesia's fuel consumption reaches approximately 1.6 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, domestic oil lifting is only in the range of 600,000–605,000 barrels per day.
This gap between consumption and production leaves Indonesia still reliant on imports. Each year, Indonesia needs to import around 1 million barrels per day of crude oil and fuel to meet domestic demand.
Fahmy stated that increasing oil lifting is only possible if Indonesia discovers significant new reserves. Another alternative is to reduce dependence on oil by developing renewable energy sources, such as biofuels.
According to him, although Indonesia still has oil and gas potential, investment in the upstream sector is not yet attractive enough. Most reserves are located offshore, requiring high operational costs, while producing fields continue to experience natural decline.
"This downward trend is inevitable. Self-sufficiency from fossil fuels will be difficult without the discovery of large reserves," said Fahmy.
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