March 30, 2026 | 07:35 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Crude oil prices have climbed back above US$100 per barrel after fluctuating between US$95 and US$98 over the past week, as escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to rattle global energy markets.
On Monday, U.S. crude traded above US$100, while Brent crude surged well above US$110, reflecting growing fears of prolonged supply disruptions.
According to Trading Economics, the latest data showed oil at US$101.47 per barrel. The increase comes as the conflict in the Middle East entered its fifth week, with market participants becoming increasingly pessimistic about the chances of a quick resolution.
“Market participants are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the possibility of a quick resolution, especially after the Houthi group, backed by Iran in Yemen, became involved alongside the additional deployment of U.S. forces in the region,” Trading Economics said in an analysis on Monday, March 30, 2026.
The Houthi group had earlier launched missile attacks on Israel and said the strikes would continue as long as attacks on Iran and its allies persisted. The group also has the capability to threaten shipping lanes in the Red Sea and strategic energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia.
The attacks add fresh risks to global trade routes that were already under pressure due to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for roughly 20 percent of global oil and gas flows, according to multiple market reports.
Bhima Yudhistira, Executive Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios), said Houthi involvement could further complicate the situation. He warned that the impact would be far greater if disruptions spread to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the gateway to the Red Sea and the main maritime access route to the Suez Canal.
According to Bhima, about 12 percent of global trade passes through the Suez route, which is accessed through Bab el-Mandeb, making it one of the world’s most important shipping corridors. Previous disruptions along the route have added up to 15 days to shipping times, raised logistics costs, and made it harder for vessels to secure insurance coverage. The Suez Canal is widely estimated to handle around 12 percent of global trade.
Bhima said the impact on Indonesia could be significant, especially as the country remains heavily exposed to global trade and imported inflation. He noted that prolonged disruptions could hurt shipments to Europe and drive up energy and food costs.
“If disruptions persist, oil prices could potentially surge to US$120 per barrel, which will accelerate imported inflation, especially in the food and energy sectors,” Bhima said in a written statement on Monday, March 30, 2026.
He added that the distribution of fertilizer raw materials through the affected routes is also at risk of disruption, which could put further pressure on the agricultural sector. Pressure on the rupiah exchange rate is also likely to intensify due to weaker exports and rising import costs.
Bhima said the government needs to take immediate mitigation measures, including diplomatic efforts with Yemen to ensure the smooth flow of Indonesian goods, accelerating budget reallocations for energy and fertilizer subsidies, and expanding public transport subsidies to curb fuel consumption.
“At least an additional Rp515 trillion in government spending will be needed, assuming that every US$1 increase in oil prices above the state budget assumption adds Rp10.3 trillion to the fiscal burden,” Bhima said.
He also stressed the importance of accelerating the energy transition, particularly in the electricity sector, through the development of renewable energy sources such as solar, micro-hydro, and wind power. He said such measures are crucial to reducing Indonesia’s dependence on fossil fuels amid mounting geopolitical uncertainty.
Read: Trump Says He Eyes Iran's Oil, Considers Seizing Kharg Island
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