TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has argued that the inflation rate for March 2026 should ideally be recorded at 2.51 percent annually, a figure lower than the official data provided by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS).
"Currently, we are at 2.51 percent, so it's still good," Purbaya stated during a working meeting with the House of Representatives' Commission XI on Monday, April 6, 2026.
Previously, the BPS announced that annual inflation for March 2026 reached 3.48 percent. This rate at the end of the first quarter nearly approached the upper limit of the government's designated inflation target.
In contrast to the BPS record, Purbaya maintains that inflation in March 2026 sat at only 2.51 percent. The Finance Minister assessed that the reported 3.48 percent figure resulted from the Central Statistics Agency accounting for the electricity discounts applied last year. "This inflation figure often leads to a misconception with the previous 3.48 percent. It's as if our economy is overheating," he remarked.
He remains confident that the actual inflation hovers around 2.51 percent. According to him, this figure represents a healthy condition and provides room for more expansive economic growth without triggering a significant spike in prices.
On April 1, 2026, Ateng Hartono, Deputy of Statistics Distribution and Services at BPS, stated that there was an increase in the Consumer Price Index from 107.22 in March 2025 to 110.95 in March 2026. Ateng explained that, categorized by expenditure groups, annual inflation was primarily driven by the housing, water, electricity, and household fuels sector, which experienced a 7.24 percent increase.
"The commodity with the largest contribution to inflation in the housing, water, electricity, and household fuels group is the electricity tariff," he noted during a press conference.
According to Ateng, inflation in March 2026 was still influenced by a "low-base effect" stemming from the electricity tariff discounts granted in January and February 2025.
However, he noted that this effect has begun to diminish compared to the previous month, when annual inflation for February hit 4.76 percent. "While the influence was quite significant in January and February, by March, the impact of the low-base effect had started to lessen," Ateng said.
He mentioned that even though prepaid electricity tariffs had returned to normal prices by March 2025, postpaid tariffs were still affected by the previous discounts.
On a monthly basis, BPS recorded a 0.41 percent inflation rate for March, reflecting an increase in the Consumer Price Index from 110.50 in February 2026 to 110.95 in March. This figure is lower than the previous year's 1.65 percent. Meanwhile, the calendar year's inflation was recorded at 0.94 percent.
Ateng stated that the expenditure group contributing most to monthly inflation was food, beverages, and tobacco, with an inflation rate of 1.07 percent contributing to a 0.32 percent overall rise. "The dominant commodities driving inflation in this group are fresh fish, broiler chickens, rice, chicken eggs, bird's eye chili, cooking oil, and beef," he concluded.
Anastasya Lavenia Yudi contributed to the report
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