TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Scorching hot days have gripped Jakarta and its neighbors over the past few days. The intense glare of the sun throughout the day has failed to yield the usual afternoon or evening showers. This footprint of the El Niño phenomenon is clearly visible on the rainfall distribution map from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), which indicates extremely minimal rainfall since the beginning of this month. Precipitation has only been observed in the southern territory, with the highest recorded at 34.5 mm per day, which is considered a moderate level.
The drastic reduction in rainfall this month is not confined to the Greater Jakarta (Jabodetabek) area, but is also visible across most parts of Indonesia. According to Erma Yulihastin, a researcher from the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), these dry conditions are expected to remain generally unchanged throughout July.
"The same goes for August until September: there will be a significant reduction in rainfall," she said in a statement released on Saturday, June 6, 2026.
The Coordinator of the Climate Change and Variability Team at BRIN revealed that the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) declared the formal onset of El Niño in June 2026 after observing a consistent rise in sea surface temperatures between April and June. "The intensity is observed to reach around +0.69 degrees Celsius in the central tropics near the equator of the Pacific Ocean," she noted.
Based on climate modeling developed by the BRIN team, the initial impacts of El Niño are already being felt through a significant decrease in rainfall across several regions of Indonesia during the first ten days of June. The Java region, in particular, has experienced a considerable drop in precipitation. Meanwhile, even drier conditions are becoming prevalent in the southeastern stretches of Indonesia, including Bali, Lombok, West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), and East Nusa Tenggara (NTT).
In the second ten-day period of June, these parched conditions are expected to expand further across the southern regions of Indonesia. Rainfall in many areas is predicted to plunge below 0.5 millimeters, with showers occurring only locally in scattered parts of West Java and Central Java.
The BRIN team's analysis indicates that during the final ten days of June, there is a possibility of increased rainfall along the western coast of Sumatra. This exception is driven by the projected emergence of atmospheric vortices in the Indian Ocean, which can enhance convective activity and draw additional moisture to the area. However, this anomaly is expected to have minimal impact on Java, which will continue to see sparse rainfall.
Entering July, the dry weather pattern is predicted to maintain its dominance over the southern regions of Indonesia. Rainfall is expected to be more concentrated in Sumatra and parts of Kalimantan, courtesy of the vortices developing over the Indian Ocean near Sumatra. "The areas that will receive rainfall are Sumatra and the Malay Peninsula. Meanwhile, the southern regions of Indonesia, in general, will remain dry," Erma explained.
BRIN projects that the minimal rainfall conditions in Java will persist at least through August and September. Localized rainfall may still break through in some areas of West Java, such as Bogor and Bandung, but overall precipitation will remain well below normal thresholds. The prospect of increased rainfall in Java will only begin to materialize in October, particularly during the first ten days of the month.
Driest Regions
According to Erma, the territories likely to experience the most protracted dry season are located in southeastern Indonesia and the northern coast of Java. Consecutive days without rain are expected to stretch from June through September, and may even drag on into October in certain locales.
"These conditions require anticipation from local governments and communities because they carry the potential to escalate the risk of drought, deplete water availability, and trigger forest and land fires in vulnerable areas during the dry season," she warned.
During the 2026 Early Dry Season Forecast Press Conference on Wednesday, March 4, the Head of the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), Teuku Faisal Fathani, also affirmed that this year's dry season will be drier and longer than usual. "BMKG emphasizes that all this predictive information serves as an early warning that must be promptly translated into concrete actions by stakeholders to minimize the risk of drought disasters in Indonesia," Faisal concluded.
Read: WMO: El Nino Could Trigger Drought in Indonesia in Coming Months
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